'Marathon' is facing a red alert for its long-term service as it records lackluster performance metrics despite a development budget of ₩370 billion. As live-service titles backed by astronomical capital—such as Sony Interactive Entertainment's (SIE) 'Concord' and Wildlight Entertainment's 'Highgard'—shut down one after another, 'Marathon' is also seeing a steep decline in its user base.

According to a Forbes report on the 9th, the initial development budget for 'Marathon' exceeded ₩370 billion ($250M), excluding server maintenance and new content production costs. Market analysis firm Alinea estimated that the game has sold 1.2 million units across all platforms. Based on a $40 retail price, this translates to approximately ₩71 billion in revenue—a figure far too low to recoup the massive initial development investment.

The most critical issue is the sharp drop in concurrent users, a key metric for long-term success. While the daily peak concurrent user count on Steam reached 143,621 during a free event, it fell to 20,306 as of April 10, a 68% decline from its peak. The high fatigue inherent in the extraction genre, combined with the sense of deprivation caused by cheating (hacks) in a system where players lose all equipment upon defeat, is cited as a factor accelerating the departure of casual users.

The decline in 'Marathon's' metrics feels particularly ominous due to the recent 'brutal history of blockbuster live-service games' in the market. SIE's 5v5 hero shooter 'Concord,' which had a development budget of approximately ₩590 billion ($400M), permanently shut down its servers on September 6, just two weeks after launch.

'Concord' was under fire even before its release for bizarre character designs and overt ideological messaging that drew direct criticism. Ultimately, it recorded disastrous results with peak concurrent users on Steam failing to reach even 700. SIE announced a full refund and service termination via its official blog, stating, "The game's other aspects and initial launch did not land as we intended."

The situation was no different for 'Highgard,' a free-to-play raid shooter from Wildlight Entertainment, founded by veterans from Respawn Entertainment. Developed over four years with a team of over 100 people, the game shut down completely on March 12, about 45 days after its January 26 launch.

Industry insiders pointed out that management relied too heavily on the belief that they could replicate the 'lucky break' of 'Apex Legends,' which succeeded through a surprise launch without significant marketing. Wildlight stated on its official social media that the reason for the service termination was its "inability to build a player base that could sustain the game in the long term."

Experts identify 'long development cycles' and 'market saturation' as the core reasons for the string of failures among blockbusters backed by hundreds of billions of won. During project periods that average 5 to seven years, user preferences shift rapidly; in a market where established games have already solidified the ecosystem, it is difficult to survive with complacent planning and standardized monetization models alone.

As new live-service titles continue to face setbacks, the 'Marathon' development team expressed a strong commitment to service improvement on their official blog on April 9, stating, "We are prepared to play the long game with Marathon." However, in a harsh market environment where blockbusters are failing one after another, it remains unclear whether 'Marathon' can overcome the crisis.