'Marathon' is facing a red alert for its long-term service as it records lackluster performance metrics despite a $270 million development budget. As Western live-service titles backed by astronomical capital—such as Sony Interactive Entertainment's (SIE) 'Concord' and Wildlight Entertainment's 'Highgard'—shut down one after another, 'Marathon' is also showing a steep decline in its user base.

According to a report by Forbes on the 9th, the initial development budget for 'Marathon' exceeds $270 million (approx. $250M USD), excluding server maintenance and new content production costs. Market analysis firm Alinea estimates that the game has sold 1.2 million units across all platforms. Based on a $40 retail price, this translates to roughly $52 million in revenue—a figure far too low to recoup the massive initial development investment.

The most critical issue is the sharp drop in concurrent users, a key metric for long-term success. On the PC platform Steam, the daily peak concurrent user count reached 143,621 during a free event, but as of April 10, it had fallen to 20,306—a 68% decline from its peak. The high fatigue inherent in the extraction genre, combined with the sense of deprivation caused by cheating (hacks) in a system where players lose all their gear upon defeat, is cited as a factor accelerating the departure of casual users.

The decline in 'Marathon's' metrics feels particularly ominous due to the recent 'cruel history of blockbuster live-service games' in the Western market. SIE's 5v5 hero shooter 'Concord,' which had a development budget of approximately $400 million, permanently shut down its servers on September 6, just two weeks after launch.

"'Concord' was under fire even before its release for its bizarre character designs and overt ideological messaging, which drew direct criticism. Ultimately, it recorded dismal results with peak concurrent users on Steam failing to reach even 700. SIE announced full refunds and the suspension of service via its official blog, stating, "The game's launch and other aspects did not land as we intended.""

The situation was no different for 'Highgard,' a free-to-play raid shooter from Wildlight Entertainment, founded by veterans from Respawn Entertainment. Developed over four years by a team of over 100 people, the game shut down completely on March 12, just 45 days after its January 26 launch.

"Industry insiders pointed out that management relied too heavily on the belief that they could replicate the stroke of luck seen with 'Apex Legends,' which succeeded through a surprise launch without significant marketing. Wildlight stated on its official social media that the reason for the shutdown was its "inability to build a player base that could sustain the game in the long term.""

Experts identify 'long development cycles' and 'market saturation' as the core reasons for the string of failures among Western blockbusters that have received hundreds of millions in funding. During project periods that average 5 to seven years, user preferences shift rapidly; analysts argue that in a market where established games have already solidified the ecosystem, it is difficult to survive with complacent planning and standardized monetization models alone.

As new live-service titles continue to face setbacks, the 'Marathon' development team expressed a strong commitment to service improvement on their official blog on April 9, stating, "We are prepared to play the long game with Marathon." However, in a harsh market environment where Western blockbusters are failing one after another, it remains unclear whether 'Marathon' will be able to overcome its crisis.