Overwatch

Overwatch League Stage 4 and Final Playoffs: Map Win Rate Analysis

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Every match counts and we’ll look behind each team’s performances and map win rates to analyze who will make it to the top!

Disclaimer: These predictions are strictly based on calculations from each of the team’s win rates and may not resemble reality, especially map differentials. But, they could still provide useful information and give a rough estimate who will make it to the playoffs, and how the seeding will be placed.


As we proceed through the last week of stage 4, two teams are pretty much set into stage 4 playoffs. Based on quick estimation, a team needs at least 6 wins to make into playoffs, and teams with 6 – 4 record will make it to playoffs based on map differential. Only two teams surpass the minimum 6 – 4 threshold and they are Los Angeles Valiant and Los Angeles Gladiators. New York Excelsior has the minimum 6 wins to contest for a playoff spot; however, with a +15 map differential, it is safe to say that they will most likely make it to the playoffs.

That means there are four teams that can possibly get 6 wins or more, and they are Philadelphia Fusion, Houston Outlaws, San Francisco Shock and Dallas Fuel; and the last spot will most likely be taken by Philadelphia Fusion.


Although Philadelphia seem to be inconsistent time to time, Philadelphia have favored matchups and maps for this week. They will be playing against Houston Outlaws and London Spitfire, teams that they had success with this season.

Philadelphia Fusion | 3 – 2 | Houston Outlaws


The Philadelphia Fusion vs. Houston Outlaws should be the match of the week as it will be incredibly close and will have a lot of playoff implications. For this week, it loos like the Fusion will continue its winning streak against the Outlaws as the maps are looking favored for the Fusion. First off, the Fusion’s map rate has been very good for both Blizzard World and Horizon Lunar Colony. As for Houston Outlaws, their win rate for Blizzard World and Horizon Lunar Colony is currently sitting at 33%. However, they have a chance to fight back in Lijiang Tower and Watchpoint: Gibraltar as they currently have a 100% winning record due to their dominant frontline with Muma’s Reinhardt and Spree’s Zarya. This is the same for Watchpoint: Gibraltar, as Linkzr have been dominating with a widow-heavy maps. If Houston could do what they do best, it is very possible that this will most likely go to map 5. In Nepal, it could be anyone’s game because the overall winrate for both teams sit around 50 ~ 60% (Houston Outlaws has not been to map 5 this stage so it’s difficult to judge how well they will do in this meta). However, the Philadelphia Fusion do look like a stronger team, and Carpe was able to clutch out a win against the Dynasty in Nepal. If Linkzr is able to contest Carpe and dominate, it might go into Outlaws favor but for now the money is on the Fusion.

Philadelphia Fusion | 3 – 1 | London Spitfire


There has been a bit of unspoken rivalry between the two teams. With Spitfire beating the Fusion with a 4 – 0 during the first two stages, and then the Fusion being able to fight back during the stage 2 playoffs and in stage 3 and 4. In stage 5, Philadelphia Fusion is looking to continue their winning streak as they are currently looking like the stronger team. At this moment, the Philadelphia Fusion is looking like they will take Oasis and Watchpoint: Gibraltar as they are heavily favored. Hanamura looks like it’s either going to be a really close match or will be taken by the Spitfire as it is one of their better maps. Whether or not this game will go to map 5 will depend on King’s Row. In stage 5, both teams have not been to clinch a win from King’s Row and it could go anyway. But, judging how both teams have been performing this stage, Philadelphia Fusion is looking like they will take this match.


The Dallas Fuel had a surprisingly good run in stage 4. With their new coach Aero, they were able to climb up the ranks and be a contender for a stage playoff for the first time this season. They are looking good right now but might come off a bit short this stage. While it is entirely possible for them to beat Seoul, it might be very difficult for them to beat the Valiant, which they might need to do if the Fusion beats both teams this week.  

Dallas Fuel | 3 – 1 | Seoul Dynasty


Dallas Fuel is most likely going to take the win against Seoul Dynasty because Dynasty’s win percentage is abysmal for the first 2 maps. Sitting at 25% in Blizzard World and 0% in Horizon Lunar Colony, Dallas is most likely be able to take the first two maps with ease. Map 3 and 4 get a little even, and it could go either way. There’s a chance that the Seoul Dynasty might take Oasis, but finally lose in Dorado. However, even if they go to map 5, Seoul Dynasty only has a 25% win rate, so it is doubtful that Dallas will not come out on top.

Dallas Fuel | 1 – 3 | Los Angeles Valiant


Dallas Fuel’s match against Valiant is going to be rough. First and foremost, the Valiant are currently dominating with all the control maps as they have a 100% win rate in both Lijiang Tower and Nepal. That means that the Fuel has to try its best to snag a victory over the Valiant without gong to map 5. However, the Valiant are sitting at 67% in King’s Row while the Fuel is only at 25%. The Fuel has a slight edge over Lunar Colony but not as much as the Valiant having edge over the Fuel with King’s Row. For Gibraltar, both teams are about even but I will have to give the Valiant a slight edge as they are looking like the stronger team at the moment.



San Francisco Shock | 2 – 3 | Los Angeles Valiant


Although the San Francisco Shock has made significant improvements coming into stage 4, it looks like as if the Los Angeles Valiant can possibly close off the stage with perfect 10 wins because the maps in this match are slightly favored towards the Valiant. While, the Shock is slightly ahead in King’s Row and pretty close with Dorado, they are heavily unfavored with Lijiang, Hanamura and Nepal. Even if the Shock beats the Valiant out with King’s Row and take a map off Valiant in Dorado, they will have a tough time getting any maps from Lijiang, Hanamura and Nepal because Valiant’s win rate on these maps are nearly 100%.

San Francisco Shock | 4 – 0 | Shanghai Dragons


The match against should be pretty straight forward. At this point, I don’t think the Dragons are capable enough to beat out the Shock. It should be a 4 – 0. There’s a slight chance that the Dragons might take a map off the Shock in Lijiang Tower, it doesn’t seem like that will be the case based on both teams’ current performances.



Houston Outlaws | 2 – 3 | Philadelphia Fusion

See Outlaws vs. Fusion analysis above.

Houston Outlaws | 1 – 3 | New York Excelsior


Things are looking grim for the Outlaws. Not only do they have a difficult matchup against the Philadelphia Fusion, they will have to face New York Excelsior. If they want to make it to the stage playoffs, they will have to take both wins. However, their matchup against the New York Excelsior are unfavored. New York currently has a 100% win rate on all Hybrid maps and Dorado this season. While, the Outlaws only have 33% and 25% respectively. It won’t be easy with Horizon Lunar Colony either. They currently have a 33% win rate meanwhile the Excelsior has 67%. Their only real chance to take a map against the Excelsior is Lijiang Tower because they currently have a 100% win rate, but that is their only bet.  



As we end week 4 and go into week 5, it is pretty much safe to say that the final 6 teams are set. There is a possibility for Houston or Seoul to take Philly’s spot but it doesn’t seem like that will be case. It will be a miracle both of these two teams to make it to playoffs.


What does Houston and Seoul need to make it to playoff?

They need Philadelphia to lose both games against the Houston Outlaws and London Spitfire, and both Houston and Seoul need to beat both games. This will be no easy feat. Houston will faceoff against Philadelphia Fusion and New York Excelsior and Seoul Dynasty will face off against Dallas Fuel and Los Angeles Gladiators. While it is entirely possible for this to happen, it doesn’t seem like it will.

Therefore, the real question remaining are the seed placements. First and foremost, both New York Excelsior and Los Angeles Valiant have obtained their seed buys and will be waiting for the teams in semifinals. Here are the predictions for the rest of the seed placements:



The battle for the 3rd spot is incredibly close between the remaining four teams, but the Gladiators are set on taking the 3rd spot as they have the easiest matchups and will probably accrue highest map differential.

Los Angeles Gladiators | 4 – 0 | Shanghai Dragons


The Shanghai Dragons will struggle to get a map off the Gladiators because they are facing one of the strongest teams of the League. There is a chance that the Dragons might take a win off King’s Row as the win rate for both teams are abysmal; however, it doesn’t seem very likely.

Los Angeles Gladiators | 3 – 1 | Seoul Dynasty


Los Angeles Gladiators are on course of taking this win against the Dynasty. The maps of this match are slightly favored for the Gladiators with the exception of King’s Row where the Dynasty is currently sitting at a 75% win rate, while the Gladiators are only on 33%. Although the rest of the match is quite close between the two teams in terms of win rate, the Gladiators are still slightly favored, and they are currently the stronger team.  


Boston has been struggling through this stage, but because of their perfect 10-win in stage 4, they will be placed high in the seeding and will most likely finish of the season with 4th place.

Boston Uprising | 0 – 4 | New York Excelsior


Although the Boston Uprising are slowly getting used to the meta, the team does not look fit enough to challenge the New York Excelsior. I expect this match to go 4 – 0 in favor the Excelsior. The only map that the Uprising can possibly challenge the Excelsior is probably Lijiang Tower as both teams are struggling to take this map. While it is true that their win rate for Horizon Lunar Colony is close, the Excelsior is the stronger team and will most likely take the win.

Boston Uprising | 3 – 2 | Florida Mayhem


This match should go to map 5 as both teams are very close at the moment. Both teams are looking abysmal with all the maps and each map could go either way. Both teams are at 0% win rate for Lijiang Tower and Nepal (if they go map 5).  The Florida Mayhem are slightly favored with King’s Row and Watchpoint: Gibraltar, sitting at 33% and 25% respectively while the Uprising is at 25% and 0% respectively. However, Boston is leading in Horizon Lunar Colony with 67% win rate while Mayhem is at 25%. If Boston can come ahead in both of the control maps, we can potentially go to map 5 with Boston taking the match. While it is true that the Florida Mayhem has a 100% win rate in Nepal, it was against the Dragons and may not mean much. Boston will most likely take this match in map 5.


The race for the 4th and 5th place will be close between Boston Uprising and Philadelphia Fusion and it will be decided by map differentials. However, if the Philadelphia Fusion wants to take the 4th spot, they will have beat both Outlaws and Spitfire convincingly with more than +7 map differential and that may not seem very likely based on their matchups this week.

Philadelphia Fusion | 3 – 2 | Houston Outlaws

See the analysis of this match above.

Philadelphia Fusion | 3 – 1 | London Spitfire

See the analysis of this match above.



While the London Spitfire has been dominating the League with map differentials, their poor performance during stage 4 and 5 will unfortunately place them in 6th place seeding. However, it is entirely possible for the Spitfire to make a jump to the 3rd place by beating both Florida Mayhem and Philadelphia Fusion this week. While this is possible, it does not seem very likely as the Philadelphia Fusion should take the win.

London Spitfire | 3 – 1 | Florida Mayhem


The match between London Spitfire and Florida Mayhem will be straightforward. There is a chance the Mayhem might taken a win off King’s Row as they have a relatively higher chance of winning than the Spitfire, which is at 0%. However, the Spitfire is slightly ahead in both Hanamura and Oasis. If the Mayhem is able to take a win in Dorado, as both teams are at 0%, it is possible that we could go to Map 5. However, even if they do, London is in the lead with 76% win rate in Nepal, while the Mayhem is at 50%. It is doubtful, though, that Mayhem will beat Spitfire in Dorado, especially with Birdring being back from what seemingly felt like a slump since his wrist injury.

London Spitfire | 1 – 3 | Philadelphia Fusion

See the analysis of this match above.

 

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