The intensified matchups just a month away! Analysis of the Overwatch World Cup Quarterfinals

 

The exciting Overwatch World Cup Qualifiers came to an end in summer, and there is now just one month left until the Playoffs at Blizzcon.


After the Group Draw on August 28th, the national teams are expected to be back to practicing and analyzing their opponents.


Here are predictions on how the matchups will go, as well as what Overwatch fans should pay attention to, based on the analysis of team results and performance from the Group Stage.

 


 

■ The Battle for the Pride of Top EU Teams: United Kingdom vs Sweden

 

 

United Kingdom - 1st Place in Group H, 3 Wins (4-0 against Belgium, 4-0 against Israel, 4-0 against Germany) / Group Stage Playoffs: 3-0 against Taiwan

Sweden - 1st Place in Group C, 2 Wins 1 Lose (2-2 against Portugal, 4-0 against Italy, 3-1 against Australia) / Group Stage Playoffs: 3-0 against Spain



The United Kingdom, ranked 6th in the Average Skill Rating, will be playing against Sweden, the 4th in the Average Skill Rating and the best in the EU, in the Quarterfinals.


Of the two teams, Sweden seems to have the advantage, since they have Chipshajen from Team EnVyUs and players from Misfits; both of those teams are currently dominating the Overwatch Contenders. Not only that, but with TviQ on their team, Sweden is expected to have the upper hand with pocket picks like Pharah and McCree. On the other hand, the performance coming from the United Kingdom shows that they have room for improvement.


Yet the United Kingdom was superior in team balance for the Group Stage. Although many Overwatch fans expected Sweden to be better in team balance and teamwork, since the team is mainly comprised of players from Misfits, it was actually the United Kingdom that had a better team balance.

 

▲ TviQ’s Pharah in the Overwatch Contenders.

 



▶ Match Key Point: Will SMEX and Kruise be able to guide the United Kingdom to the Semifinals?


First of all, Kruise, who has been the ace for the United Kingdom with his Genji and Soldier:76 during the Group Stage, and SMEX, who has been steadily performing well, will be the biggest key players in this matchup.


It is true that with the Overwatch Contenders, Sweden appears to have better performance with teamwork than the United Kingdom. However, Sweden may have some instabilities, since either Mannetan and CWoosh has to play as DPS even though both have been practicing as tanks due to Reinforce leaving Misfits. Also, CWoosh had some ups and downs as DPS during the Overwatch World Cup Qualifier.


Kruise has shown superb gameplay that has led his team to victory after he changed his role to DPS, and SMEX has performed fairly well regardless of the team results in the Overwatch Contenders. Whether the United Kingdom will be able to defeat Sweden, a winning candidate, and play against South Korea in the Finals, just as Kruise said, has yet to be seen.

 

▲ SMEX’s initiation and Kill Feed outshined Soldier:76’s Tactical Visor.

 

▲ Kruise’s Genji outclassing his enemies at the Overwatch Contenders. Will he be able to guide the United Kingdom to the later rounds?

 


 

 ■ NA & EU mixed team against a single team: Canada vs Australia

 

 

Canada - 1st Place in Group F, 3 Wins (4-0 against Turkey, 4-0 against Singapore, 3-2 against Russia) / Group Stage Playoffs: 3-0 against Netherlands

Australia - 2nd Place in Group C, 2 Wins 1 Lose (4-0 against Italy, 4-0 against Portugal, 1-3 against Sweden) / Group Stage Playoffs: 3-2 against Japan



The second matchup in Group A will be between Canada, which was placed 7th for the Average Skill Rating, and Australia, which was placed 13th.


This matchup seems to be in favor of Canada. With C9’s skills still sharp from their time in the EU Overwatch Contenders and xQc’s prowess that was displayed in the last Group Stage, the team seems to be in good shape. Add on the combination of Mangachu’s pick flexibility and Roolf’s ability to adapt to those picks, and Canada is force to be reckoned with.


On the other hand, Australia, which stole the spotlight quite a bit in the Group Stage, is made up of a single team; they will have to trust in the advantage that being a single team gives them. Despite this advantage though, it may be hard to assert how strong they are as a whole due to the lack of data on Kiki and Aetar’s games following their time in the Overwatch Pacific Championship. 




▶ Match Key Point: Another chance for the Mangachu-Roolf duo’s Pharmercy


If Overwatch fans were to pick the best play from the Overwatch World Cup Group Stage, many would pick the Group F tiebreakers between Canada and Russia, the death sentence matchup that led the losing team to play against South Korea in the Group Stage Playoffs.


What decided the outcome of this matchup wasn’t Agilities’ Genji, which was comparable to that of ShadowBurn, but Mangachu and Roolf’s Pharmercy. ShadowBurn had no choice but to come up with the same Pharmercy duo against Mangachu-Roolf’s, and this struggle between the two Pharmercys was what decided the winner and the loser for this round.


The possibility of Pharmercy being the key point for the matchup between Canada and Australia is fairly high. Notably, Australia has been playing with solid comps revolving around Soldier:76 and Tracer rather than flexible Hero picks in the Group Stage, and has only shown Gunba’s Sombra as a pocket pick for attack/defend.


Considering the strength Pharah has in the current meta and the rework on Mercy since the update on September 20th, it will likely be Pharmercy that leads the game. Fans are looking forward to how Australia plans to counter this.

 

▲ Mangachu & Roolf dominating the sky against Russia in the Overwatch World Cup (From Twitch Clips Mirror)

 


 

■ The best big match in the Quarterfinals: China vs France

 

 

China - 1st Place in Group A, 3 Wins (4-0 against Romania, 4-0 against Norway, 4-0 against Hong Kong) / Group Stage Playoffs: 3-0 against Thailand

France - 1st Place in Group B, 3 Wins (4-0 against Argentina, 3-1 against Thailand, 3-1 against Denmark) / Group Stage Playoffs: 3-0 against Norway



This matchup would be the most anticipated if we were to pick one out of those in the Quarterfinals. France (Rogue) is considered one of the world’s top teams, and the most powerful single team to play as a national team, and China is placed 1st for the Average Skill Rating; this is expected to be the biggest and most intense matchup.


However, China might have a slight advantage since Rogue hasn’t been doing so great in the Contenders, while LGD, which makes up most of Team China, has been performing well in the 2017 Overwatch Premier Series.


Yet, form is temporary, but class in permanent. It is Rogue that has experienced many tournaments, and went through both victory and elimination in the Group Stage. No one can predict how they will be once the matchup begins, and the reworks on Mercy and D.Va could also affect how the game goes.




▶ Match Key Point: The collision of the current and new meta


It may be better to focus on the unique characteristics each team shows instead of looking at a certain player’s skill or potential, since the matchup is expected to be very fierce and intense.


One can certainly say that China is the pioneer of new metas out of all the teams that made to the Quarterfinals; they have come up with refreshing comps or metas in scrims that even Korean pros sometimes copy.


On the other hand, Rogue tends to go for stable comps and the current meta, as they have shown in APEX and other tournaments. Thus, either China’s surprising comps work against Rogue or Rogue’s solid team composition breaks China’s inconsistent comps in this matchup.


Of course, since both are the best out of best, Overwatch fans will be looking forward to what they put on display this time. Let us see whether akm’s Soldier: 76 and SoOn’s Tracer will wreck China for good, or if Eileen’s Genji, uNdeAD’s Reaper, and MG’s Widowmaker will pierce through the heart of France.

 


▲ akm’s Soldier: 76 still remains vicious even when Rogue wasn’t doing well.

 


 

■ Aiming for the biggest reversal by harassing supports: South Korea vs United States

 

 

South Korea - 1st Place in Group E, 3 Wins (4-0 against Austria, 4-0 against Poland, 4-0 against Netherlands) / Group Stage Playoffs: 3-0 against Russia

United States - 1st Place in Group G, 3 Wins (4-0 against New Zealand, 4-0 against Brazil, 3-1 against Taiwan) / Group Stage Playoffs: 3-0 against Germany



If we previously picked the matchup between China and France as the most interesting in the Quarterfinals, then the matchup between South Korea and United States would be the matchup most likely to have some big surprises.


To be frank, it is common to predict that South Korea will win against the United States because they have been beating opponent teams without any defeats since the 2016 Overwatch World Cup. The skills of individual players in Team South Korea are apparently among the world's best, and they have repeatedly grasped victory by considering various comps and not adhering to the mainstream dive meta in the Group Stage.


However, the United States is not a team to be overlooked; they are placed 3rd in the Average Skill Rating, just one place below South Korea, and aside from Taiwan, they have not given a single set to their opponent teams. The statement their DPS players sinatraa and JAKE delivered may very well be true: “It seems that the United States will win this year.”




▶ Match Key Point: Will the United States, the home team, be able to make the best reversal ever?


As mentioned beforehand, there are many parts that could lead to a reversal in the matchups between these two teams.


First of all, the United States will have an advantage because they are likely to get the most support out of the audience on site, being the home team. Players in Team South Korea will have to make a long trip to play on the stage, deal with jet lag, and could have a hard time adapting to a new environment and food. These disadvantages won’t affect the United States team. Poland is the only team that failed to proceed to the Playoffs out of all ‘home teams’ in the Group Stage.


Something else to take note of is fact that South Korea’s DPS Fl0w3R, Saebyeolbe, and tank Mano have not been playing in any tournaments for a long time after they withdrew from APEX. It is rather hard to imagine that Lunatic-Hai and Team LW would still meet in midst of APEX to practice.


On the other hand, Team United States can practice on/offline with several teams that are playing in the Overwatch Contenders. In fact, they’ve been practicing with several teams periodically.

 

 

Along with this, the United States has the upper hand over South Korea with Mercy.


It is not known how the new Mercy will be used in tournaments, but many Overwatch fans say that Adam, who plays Lucio now but was once known for his top NA Mercy plays, is better than ryujehong’s Ana and Zenyatta, or tobi’s Lucio.


If the new Mercy is a powerful weapon in Adam’s hands, then the United States may be able to execute the best reversal ever in the Overwatch World Cup. However, if Overwatch fans were to bet on either one of them, many fans are sure to side with Team South Korea.

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