As we head towards the final remaining matches of the Overwatch League, we will take a look at each team’s performance throughout the season and get a sense of who has the advantage and the greatest chance of making it to the semifinals (at least on paper).
The battle between Boston Uprising and Philadelphia Fusion is quite close. Throughout Season 1, the Boston Uprising and Philadelphia Fusion winning ratio were about 47/53 respectively. Although Boston Uprising does seem like the weaker team at the moment, Boston Uprising has a significant advantage over the maps, especially in Map 1, where they will be playing some of their strongest maps.
"For the Fusion, Match 1 will be the toughest one for this week because they will have to play Volskaya and Junkertown, which historically, is their worst maps at a 20% win rate"
Boston Uprising's match 1
In match 1, Boston Uprising will be playing in both Eichenwalde and Volskaya Industries where they have one of the highest win rates out of all of their maps (91% and 80% respectively). Boston Uprising needs to make sure they can take both of these maps or they will have a real difficulty making it to the playoffs. Boston Uprising also has a slight advantage over the other two maps, Oasis (73% compared to Fusion’s 53%) and Junkertown (64% compared to Fusion’s 20%), and they need to beat at least one to take the win.
However, there are some major challenges for the Uprising. As mentioned before, they were going through a serious slump in stage 4 and they are currently looking like the weakest team at the moment. They might be struggling in Dorado, even though they had an 80% record in stage 4 because they lost against the Fusion and their season 1 record is at 60% with Philadelphia Fusion. If they lose Dorado, they will have a tremendous amount of pressure trying to clinch at least 3 of the 4 maps to take the first match. Also, they have to avoid a draw at all costs because Nepal is Boston’s weakest map in the series.
Philadelphia Fusion's match 1
For the Fusion, Match 1 will be the toughest one for this week because they will have to play Volskaya and Junkertown, which historically, is their worst maps at a 20% win rate. Eichenwalde is slightly better as Fusion’s win rate is at 40% but with Uprising’s 80% it will still be hard for Fusion to take a win. The general strategy for Fusion is to take at least Dorado and Oasis, their two strongest maps, and at least force a tie with Eichenwalde, in order to beat the Uprising in Nepal, our final tiebreaker.
"King’s Row was technically Uprising’s worst map in Stage 4, despite Fusion losing against them in this map."
Philadelphia Fusion's match 2
Match 2 will be much better for Fusion and they should be able to take a win. They are historically better in Lijiang Tower and Hanamura as Fusion’s record in these two maps (73%, 67% respectively) are much higher than the Uprising (47%, 20% respectively). They were also able to beat the Uprising in Dorado in stage 4, despite having equal win rate in Season 1.
Their strategy is to take all three of these maps. If by any chance they lose any of these maps, it is imperative that they force a draw in King’s Row, so that they could force a tiebreaker, which should be an easy win for the Fusion. This should be easily possible because King’s Row was technically Uprising’s worst map in Stage 4, despite Fusion losing against them in this map. Also, the loss was due to some crucial mistakes, such as sloppy ultimate usage and overextension of tanks, that are easily fixable.
Boston Uprising's match 2
In match 2, Boston Uprising will have a rougher start because they will jump into maps that the Fusion is very strong with. They will have to work to their strength. Their best chance here is King’s Row and Junkertown. If they could continue how they played in King’s Row against the Fusion in Stage 4, they will have a chance to take the map. And the Uprising will have to take advantage of the fact that Junkertown is Fusion’s one of the weakest maps. Dorado was also Boston’s strongest maps in Stage 4, and they will have to redeem themselves from Stage 4 and beat the Fusion this time.
London Spitfire is in a lot of trouble for numerous reasons. First of all, they are 0 – 4 against the Gladiators (including the pre-season where the Gladiators did not have Fissure!). The Gladiators currently have a 64% win rate against the Spitfire across all maps. Secondly, London Spitfire has the second worst win rate with all the playoff maps (sitting at 51%). Third, the Spitfire had the worst performance in the latest stage with 4 – 6 record. While, on the other hand, the Gladiators have been looking strong in stage 4 with a 9 – 1 record. Historically, they have never lost a single map against the Spitfire with any of the playoff maps.
"The Gladiators are sitting at 85% win rate with Lijiang Tower in Season 1, and that is not even their highest map win rate."
Los Angeles Gladiators' match 1
The Gladiators can cruise their way to victory in the first match as they will be playing some of their strongest maps. The Gladiators are sitting at 85% win rate with Lijiang Tower in Season 1, and that is not even their highest map win rate. If the Gladiators can force a draw and go into a tiebreaker, they will be playing their best map, Nepal, where they are currently at 92% win rate. Even if they don’t force the match into a tiebreaker, they have a significant advantage over the other maps. For example, their win rate for King’s Row is higher (55% compared to Spitfire’s 36%) than the Spitfire, and their win rate for Dorado in Stage 4 was at 80% compared to Spitfire’s 20%.
However, they are still a bit behind in Junkertown and it is one of their weaker maps. Also, despite their 80% win rate in Stage 4, the Gladiators are at 60% in Hanamura compared to Spitfire’s 70%. Therefore, to secure their victory in the first match, the Gladiators should focus on their strengths and secure wins in Lijiang Tower and Dorado, which are the weakest map for Spitfire. After that, they should try to secure a win with King’s Row or at least try to force out a draw with it and also Hanamura to beat them in Nepal.
London Spitfire's match 1
In match 1, London Spitfire would have to perform nothing short of a miracle in order to take a match 1. In stage 4, they only won once out of 5 times in Lijiang Tower, King’s Row and Dorado. Their overall win rate for season 1 isn’t the best either because they are currently sitting 36% for King’s Row, 50% for Dorado, and 54% for Lijiang Tower.
But, it’s not entirely impossible. The Spitfire does have a chance with Junkertown (64%) and Hanamura (70%), two of their stronger maps, and Gladiators weaker maps. They really need to work on their strengths and take these two maps if they want to have the slightest chance of taking match 1. If they do clinch these two, they need to focus on Dorado because it is the only other map that has the closest win rate with the Gladiators (50% compared to Gladiator’s 55%). They also have to avoid a draw as much as possible because it is the Gladiator’s strongest map.
"The Spitfire will have to take advantages of their stronger maps, such as Junkertown, and play for their lives on other maps to take the second match."
London Spitfire's match 2
The Spitfire will have a better chance in match 2 because the only map that they are significantly behind in is Oasis, which is at a 47% win rate compared to Gladiator’s 73%. While, they are slightly behind other maps, such as Dorado (50% compared to Gladiator’s 55%), Eichenwalde (60% compared to Gladiator’s 67%) and Volskaya (55% compared to Gladiator’s 60%), the win rate is quite close. And judging by Spitfire’s performance against the Gladiators in Stage 4, this match will be a close one. It will depend on the Birdring’s performance and if he is able to resurge from his slump like he did in their last match, we might be able to see a 3rd match between the two teams.
The Spitfire will have to take advantages of their stronger maps, such as Junkertown, and play for their lives on other maps to take the second match. They first need to take a win on Junkertown, which is their strongest map against Gladiators. Then, they would have to take at least two out of Dorado, Eichenwalde, and Volskaya to take this match, and again they would have to avoid a draw and make sure they do not go into a tiebreaker because Nepal is the Gladiator’s strongest map.
Los Angeles Gladiators' match 2
For the Gladiators, they will have to prey on Spitfire’s weaknesses and try to beat them in Dorado and Oasis, which is Spitfire’s weakest points. The Spitfire is at 47% win rate in Oasis and 20% win in Dorado in Stage 4. If they can take these two and as long as they don’t lose the next 3 maps, Eichenwalde, Volskaya, and Junkertown, they should be able to take the second match with ease. All Gladiators need to do is win at least win 1 of these 3 maps or force a draw in Eichenwalde or Volskaya so that they can beat Spitfire in Nepal.
How about Match 3?
Match 3 will be a bit different from what OWL is used to. They will implement a map selection format where the loser picks the map what they will play next. For more info, you could look at the chart below:
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