Inven Global

In Lineage Classic, the "Blessing Added to Scrolls" event has begun, offering players a chance to convert normal scrolls into blessed ones. By gathering Scrolls of Enchant Armor (Zel) and Scrolls of Enchant Weapon (Dai), players can exchange them for dedicated pouches and open them aiming for Blessed Zel or Blessed Dai.

Participation itself is straightforward. However, because each pouch requires a considerable number of scrolls and the success rate is known to be 10%, it is worth calculating the expected cost before blindly attempting it. We calculated the costs based on NPC shop prices and compared them against market rates when purchasing completed scrolls directly from other players.

Simply bring Zel or Dai and visit Dayzel, located to the northwest of Giran Town Square. Dayzel exchanges 13 Zel for a "Zelgo Mer's Blessed Pouch" and 10 Dai for a "Dayen Puels's Blessed Pouch".

Opening an exchanged pouch gives a chance to obtain one Blessed Zel or Blessed Dai. Even on failure, you do not walk away empty-handed; one normal Zel or Dai is returned, which can be saved for the next exchange.

Pouch	Exchange Materials	On Success (10%)	On Failure (90%)
Zelgo Mer's Blessed Pouch	13 Zel	1 Blessed Zel	1 Zel
Dayen Puels's Blessed Pouch	10 Dai	1 Blessed Dai	1 Dai

While scrolls may be obtained cheaper in practice, because pouch attempts require a substantial quantity, this calculation assumes purchasing them from the shop. Shop prices are 39,600 Adena for one Zel and 79,200 Adena for one Dai.

On this basis, one Zelgo Mer's Blessed Pouch is valued at 514,800 Adena, and one Dayen Puels's Blessed Pouch at 792,000 Adena. Since the success rate is 10%, a simple calculation puts the cost of one Blessed Zel at around 5.15 million Adena and one Blessed Dai at around 7.92 million Adena. Subtracting the value of the single normal scroll returned on each failure, Blessed Zel costs roughly 4.79 million Adena and Blessed Dai roughly 7.21 million Adena.

The gap becomes obvious when compared with buying completed scrolls from other players. On the Deporoju server, Blessed Zel is priced in the low 4 million range and Blessed Dai in the low 6 million range. Setting the market prices at 4 million and 6 million respectively, attempting the pouches costs roughly 790,000 Adena more for Blessed Zel and roughly 1.21 million Adena more for Blessed Dai, even after accounting for failure refunds. Buying scrolls from the shop to attempt pouches is a loss in terms of expected value.

Expected cost is strictly an average figure. A 10% chance does not mean opening 10 pouches guarantees one scroll. The probabilities of obtaining 1 or more blessed scrolls based on the number of pouches opened are calculated below. The required quantities do not reflect failure refunds.

Even after opening 10 pouches, one out of three players will get nothing, and reaching over a 95% chance requires opening nearly 30 pouches. Keep in mind that with bad luck, you could spend far more Adena than the expected cost.

At what scroll price would crafting pouches become advantageous? Calculating the break-even unit price with failure refunds included shows that, assuming a Blessed Zel market price of 4 million, one Zel must be bought for roughly 33,000 Adena or less; assuming a Blessed Dai market price of 6 million, one Dai must be bought for roughly 66,000 Adena or less.

However, in Lineage Classic, normal Zel and Dai prices experience almost no fluctuation. Reaching the break-even thresholds of 33,000 Adena for Zel and 66,000 Adena for Dai is virtually impossible, meaning that regardless of where you acquire the scrolls, attempting the pouches is unlikely to be more advantageous than buying completed scrolls. The same applies to Zel and Dai you already hold. Unless you have enough Adena and no need to sell them, selling them directly yields a higher expected return relative to value than turning them into pouches.